Everyone is making to-do lists for the new Government. Here, in no particular order, is mine:
- Simplify the tax system. Probability: very low - Mr Brown made no progress on this in the last ten years; Alistair Darling is unlikely to pursue it.
- Re-work the planning rules to encourage “green” activities; installing solar panels or wind-turbines etc. Probability: moderate – changes in this area would help to meet established Government targets.
- Encourage the building of new, or the reopening of closed, railways. Probability: low – the economic case for this is unproven and the costs are likely to outweigh, at least for the Government, the ecological benefits.
- Remove stamp duty on shares. Probability: very low – there is almost no chance of any Chancellor revoking an almost perfect tax, even if it further strengthened the financial services sector (and I do not even know if it would).
- Revise the drug laws. Probability: moderate – we spend a fortune tackling illicit drugs but maybe it is time to recognise that people’s private activities, when they do not harm others, are not the business of the state.
- Resolve issues of over-crowding within prisons. Probability: high – the Government will surely try to do this but their methods may be controversial and success is not guaranteed.
- Accelerate regeneration of inner-city estates. Probability: high – activities in this area are merely a continuation of the efforts of the last 100 years. As the country’s wealth continues to grow, more should be done to help the most disadvantaged members of our society.
- Tighten the rules on new building. Probability: high – to meet established Green targets, the rules governing the building of offices, factories and homes should be altered to enforce a minimum standard of energy efficiency.
- Remove lighting on motorways. Probability: very low – large parts of our motorway network are unlit, which suggests that the benefits of lighting, particularly away from junctions, do not justify the costs.
- Encourage a secular Government and state. Probability: low – the presence of the Bishops in the House of Lords, the creation of new faith schools (of any denomination) and the involvement of faith-based charities in areas previously the responsibility of the state should all stop.
- Improve the quality and quantity of equipment provided to our armed forces. Probability: moderate – we should not ask our armed forces to fight with inadequate or outdated equipment and the Government will probably want to avoid embarrassing press reports of shortages of body armour.
- Improve flood protection measures and sea defences. Probability: moderate – recent flooding and the complaints of the agency in charge of sea defences should prompt action in this area.
- Improve public transport. Probability: moderate – London and other large cities need sustained investment in their public transport systems to accommodate growing numbers of passengers and to discourage car use.
- Increase overseas aid. Probability: high – many areas of the world continue to need our support and we should extend this wherever possible.
- Education, education, education. Probability: high – independent and properly funded universities, high-quality secular schools, challenging and respected examination systems; all of these things should be medium to long-term cross-party targets.
- Redouble efforts to rebuild Afghanistan. Probability: moderate – moving soldiers from Iraq to Afghanistan and increasing the amount spent on reconstruction will help secure peace.
- Reduce barriers to foreign investment. Probability: high – efforts to encourage foreign investment should continue; reducing indirect business costs (red tape), strengthening the education system and improving the public transport systems will attract new investment and create jobs and wealth.
- Improve the climate for scientific research. Probability: moderate to high – improvements to the education system, sensible regulation of controversial areas (stem cell research, for example) and stout defence of legal scientific practices are necessary to encourage research.